{"id":12395,"date":"2020-03-15T21:22:45","date_gmt":"2020-03-16T04:22:45","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/cafe.foundation\/blog\/?p=12395"},"modified":"2020-03-15T21:22:45","modified_gmt":"2020-03-16T04:22:45","slug":"restarting-the-blog-with-bad-news-and-some-hope","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/cafe.foundation\/blog\/restarting-the-blog-with-bad-news-and-some-hope\/","title":{"rendered":"Restarting the Blog with Bad News &#8211; and Some Hope"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Your editor is back in action (in slow motion) having experienced two holes in his stomach, patched neatly by modern medicine and skilled practitioners.\u00a0 All is reasonably well and getting better.\u00a0 Certainly better than two well-publicized battery fires.<\/p>\n<h4><strong>The Bad News<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>Coming out of the recent fog, your editor received an email from <a href=\"https:\/\/www.kasaero.de\/en\/\">Karl Kaser (Kasaero)<\/a> with dreadful news.\u00a0 One of two Lilium prototypes had burned, somewhat similar to the recent loss of the Eviation Alice in Prescott, Arizona.\u00a0 Battery fires are of great concern for the future of the emerging industry.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/play.acast.com\/s\/dannyinthevalley\/84429713-16c9-45e5-801f-ff7ed37047ea\">A podcast on the company<\/a> claims the firm is the, \u201cBest funded air taxi startup in the world,\u201d with 100 million Euros in venture capital riding on its success.\u00a0 Up to that point in late 2019, Lilium\u2019s worst day was when a co-founder flew a small 3D-printed prototype into a tree.\u00a0 They have since been surpassed in funding because of Joby\u2019s recent near-unicorn windfalls.<\/p>\n<p>This comes as a major blow following successful public demonstrations last October.<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Watch a complete Lilium Jet test flight\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/5ukmS9ZJm40?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>A Dissenting Opinion<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Four years ago, <a href=\"http:\/\/cafe.foundation\/blog\/where-does-lilium-hide-the-batteries\/\">your editor questioned the ability of the compact craft<\/a> to contain the then two passengers and necessary battery storage for its intended mission.<\/p>\n<p>More recently, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aerokurier.de\/elektroflug\/lilium-jet-dossier\/\">Aerokurier has analyzed the questions of weight and battery size<\/a> in the five-seat version that would accommodate Uber\u2019s goals.\u00a0 They are not quite as \u201crespectfully skeptical\u201d as your editor was in 2016. \u00a0Their calculations, in German, are <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aerokurier.de\/8\/3\/7\/8\/5\/9\/6\/aerokurier_Konzeptberechnung_Lilium_Jet.pdf\">detailed in this .pdf.<\/a><\/p>\n<h4><strong>Some Perspective<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>As for batteries, the two major prototype losses seem pretty dire, but let\u2019s put things in perspective.\u00a0 <a href=\"https:\/\/cleantechnica.com\/2019\/06\/03\/500-gas-car-fires-per-day-can-we-please-get-serious-about-electric-car-battery-fires\/\"><em>CleanTechnica<\/em> reports,<\/a> \u201c<em>According to a recent\u00a0<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.usfa.fema.gov\/downloads\/pdf\/statistics\/v19i2.pdf\"><em>FEMA report<\/em><\/a><em>, \u2018from 2014 to 2016 an estimated 171,500 highway vehicle fires occurred in the United States, resulting in an annual average of 345 deaths; 1,300 injuries; and $1.1 billion in property loss. These highway vehicle fires accounted for 13 percent of fires responded to by fire departments across the nation.\u2019\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>\u201cThe report adds, \u2018Approximately one in eight fires responded to by fire departments across the nation is a highway vehicle fire. This does not include the tens of thousands of fire department responses to highway vehicle accident sites.\u2019\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>\u2018In May, three people were killed when a\u00a0<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbsnews.com\/news\/virginia-gas-station-explosion-buena-vista-3-dead-today-2019-05-11\/\"><em>gas station in Virginia<\/em><\/a><em>\u00a0exploded. In February, two cars were destroyed when a\u00a0<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbs17.com\/news\/local-news\/raw-video-2-vehicles-destroyed-in-gas-station-fire_20190226185552\/1812209858\"><em>gas station in North Carolina<\/em><\/a><em>\u00a0burst into flames<\/em>.\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Even in end-of-life recycling, these batteries can pose a hazard (not that they\u2019re being handled with kid gloves in a controlled environment).\u00a0 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theverge.com\/2020\/2\/28\/21156477\/recycling-plants-fire-batteries-rechargeable-smartphone-lithium-ion\"><em>The Verge<\/em> reports<\/a>, \u201cA nightmare for the recycling industry became incarnate when a\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/starlocalmedia.com\/planocourier\/fire-burns-plano-recycling-plant-shuts-down-collection-efforts\/article_e568427c-cdfb-11e6-a4a7-e3cc3ad629b1.html\">Texas recycling plant burst into flames in December 2016<\/a>. The fire caught quickly, melting plastic bottles, consuming cardboard boxes, and incinerating discarded paper. The massive building\u2019s sprinkler system had been damaged in a recent freeze and failed to tamp down the flames. All the firefighters could do was keep the fire contained inside, watching it burn for 12 hours.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cBy the next morning, it was clear that the facility, a recycling plant that serves the north Texas cities of Plano and Richardson, was a total loss. The fire\u2019s likely cause? The company believes it was a lithium-ion battery, like the one in your cellphone or laptop.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>As batteries become more energy dense, that desirable characteristic will be accompanied with even greater volatility unless other measures are employed.\u00a0 This video in the Verge article highlights the potential dangers.<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Lithium Ion Battery hazard demonstration video\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/9x7Gpygk9TM?start=5&#038;feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>Such hazards are particularly troubling for aircraft.\u00a0 A battery fire at altitude doesn\u2019t leave many options for escape or quenching the flames.\u00a0 That neither Eviation nor Lilium have explanations on their web sites should not surprise us: they, like us, are sorting things out and waiting for official pronouncements.<\/p>\n<p><strong>What Can Be Done?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>We will endeavor to discuss innovations and developments that will make electric aircraft more plausible, practical and safe.\u00a0 There are chemistry alternatives being introduced, and several promising methods of reducing thermal runaways and even eliminating the possibility of the magic smoke escaping, as electric aircraft pioneer Randall Fishman once put it.<\/p>\n<p>As your editor gets more energetic and productive, look forward to seeing reports on progress that should accelerate during this year.<\/p>\n<div id=\"facebook_like\"><iframe src=\"http:\/\/www.facebook.com\/plugins\/like.php?href=http%3A%2F%2Fcafe.foundation%2Fblog%2Frestarting-the-blog-with-bad-news-and-some-hope%2F&amp;layout=standard&amp;show_faces=true&amp;width=500&amp;action=like&amp;font=segoe+ui&amp;colorscheme=light&amp;height=80\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"border:none; overflow:hidden; width:500px; height:80px;\" allowTransparency=\"true\"><\/iframe><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Your editor is back in action (in slow motion) having experienced two holes in his stomach, patched neatly by modern medicine and skilled practitioners.\u00a0 All is reasonably well and getting better.\u00a0 Certainly better than two well-publicized battery fires. The Bad News Coming out of the recent fog, your editor received an email from Karl Kaser [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6862,8173,14],"tags":[9997,4672,8686,9998,3491,8347,7881,49,7728],"class_list":["post-12395","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","category-batteries","category-sky-taxis","category-sustainable_ga","tag-aerokurier","tag-cleantechnica","tag-eviation","tag-fema","tag-karl-kaser","tag-kasaero","tag-lilium","tag-randall-fishman","tag-the-verge"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Restarting the Blog with Bad News - and Some Hope - CAFE Foundation Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"As for batteries, the two major prototype losses (Eviation and Lilium) seem pretty dire, but let\u2019s put things in perspective.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"http:\/\/cafe.foundation\/blog\/restarting-the-blog-with-bad-news-and-some-hope\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Restarting the Blog with Bad News - and Some Hope - CAFE Foundation Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"As for batteries, the two major prototype losses (Eviation and Lilium) seem pretty dire, but let\u2019s put things in perspective.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"http:\/\/cafe.foundation\/blog\/restarting-the-blog-with-bad-news-and-some-hope\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"CAFE Foundation Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2020-03-16T04:22:45+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Dean Sigler\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Dean Sigler\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"http:\\\/\\\/cafe.foundation\\\/blog\\\/restarting-the-blog-with-bad-news-and-some-hope\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"http:\\\/\\\/cafe.foundation\\\/blog\\\/restarting-the-blog-with-bad-news-and-some-hope\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Dean Sigler\",\"@id\":\"http:\\\/\\\/cafe.foundation\\\/blog\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/e9c06a89f78d39fc03473ec90f4902a7\"},\"headline\":\"Restarting the Blog with Bad News &#8211; 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